Are there ominous clouds forming ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Going into the summer of 2024 we are beginning to see recession signs in the job market - the place to gauge the real economy, versus the paper economy.

Then why is the stock market still hovering near all-time highs with a 27% gain in the last 12 months? - And what happened to all the talk of monetary tightening?

COLLOSAL SPENDING happened. The government spends 1 trillion dollars every 100 days - yes, with a T.

This spending is in and of itself stimulating the economy, no different than if your always debt-ridden uncle comes to town and invites everyone out to dinner on his maxed-out credit card - the restaurant benefits just the same.... and you have a great time.

Make no mistake - the money spigots are flowing – uncle is in town. Add in the long-term demographic trend of a tightening labor market, as 10,000 boomers retire every day and it is easy to how the stock and labor markets has held up.

But….

While uncle Sam has a printing press in the basement and therefore won’t run out of money, he is nevertheless forcing all of us to pay a "hidden" tax by his dollars holding less and less value against real assets which cannot be printed.

So why is this madness continuing, and why did we never clean up the fiscal mess from the 7 trillion we printed during the covid years?

Well, because such pagan talk of balanced budgets and fiscal restraint won’t get politicians re-elected. Have you by any chance noticed how our two parties and their respective PR-outlets - aka "The news" - have gone silent on the subject?

The good news is, if your own assets like real estate and stocks you will enjoy some inflation protection - over time - as the prices of these assets will respond to the debasement like a "numerator" keeping up with a denominator out of control. You won’t get much richer, but at least not lose your shirt.

The downside is that this causes a split in the population between those holding assets versus the majority with little to no “asset inflation compensation”.

This breaks societies - inflation breaks the trust bond we have between us, it pits old versus young, and paves the way for the worst people to get elected.

Whether we have a recession, or how steep it may or may not be -
Now is a good time to be cautious and prepared – I see ominous clouds on the horizon.